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MUMBAI, May 11 (Reuters Breakingviews) – Mukesh Ambani is getting ready to list one of his consumer businesses but it isn’t either of the ones the market was expecting. Back in 2019 the boss of $200 billion Reliance Industries (RELI.NS) had pledged to spin out its giant retail and digital units. He has since lured big strategic and financial investors including Meta (META.O), Alphabet’s (GOOGL.O) Google and KKR (KKR.N)into those businesses. His fledgling financial services venture is now easier to take public.
Jio Financial could be listed as soon as September. Yet it is barely up and running, with just $244 million of loans as of March 2022. Its assets mostly comprise a 6% stake in its parent – worth about $12 billion at current market prices; that alone is large enough to make the entity among the top five Indian lenders by book value.
The attraction for new shareholders, though, is the potential for Jio to disrupt India’s $1.7 trillion small-loans market. Ambani has a good track record elsewhere, upending industries from telecoms to streaming. Moreover, the various parts of his conglomerate already have millions of customers, including mom-and-pop store owners. They’re obvious targets for Jio to cross-sell its loans to.
That’s why analysts at Jefferies reckon the upstart lender can scale up the business rapidly enough to challenge incumbents – and why they thus ascribe a multiple of four to the $1.7 billion book value of Jio’s nascent core financing business. That’s high, putting it nearly on par with where $61 billion mortgage giant Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC.NS) trades.
Another factor in Jio’s favour is that India’s appetite for borrowing remains unsated. Inquiries for credit cards leapt 77% in the three months to December from the same period in 2021; yet in total, barely one tenth of adult Indians have borrowed from a formal financial institution.
Jefferies analysts reckon Jio Financial is worth around 1.2 trillion rupees, or some $15 billion, after applying a 20% holding company discount to its Reliance stake. How close its shares trade to that on its debut will indicate whether investors share their belief that Ambani’s knack for disruption will continue.
Follow @ShritamaBose on Twitter
(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are their own.)
CONTEXT NEWS
Reliance Industries said on May 3 that its shareholders and creditors approved a plan to spin off its subsidiary Reliance Strategic Investments. The entity will be renamed Jio Financial Services.
Jio Financial will list as soon as September, a person familiar with the situation told Breakingviews.
(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own. Updates to add chart.)
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The U.S. government could soon shrink one of its most promising investments. The budget deal agreed to by President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy would move $20 billion away from the Internal Revenue Service over the next two years. The change shores up cash for other agencies, but projections suggest the IRS funding would’ve made a significant step toward closing the government’s $925 billion budget gap.
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