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July 24 (Reuters) – Deteriorating economic growth has pumped up the cost of high-yield debt, increasing the appeal of relatively less-risky fixed-income investments, the head of global fixed income at Europe's largest asset manager said.
"I prefer investment-grade, subordinated and emerging market (EM) debt for the moment," Gregoire Pesques, chief investment officer of global fixed income and head of aggregate strategies at Amundi, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum (GMF), underscoring an appetite for mild risk and moderate returns.
Earlier this year, annual returns on U.S. junk-grade bonds were the highest among all investment categories as fears of a severe economic downturn showed signs of ebbing, encouraging investors into riskier investments.
Relentless rate hikes by central banks, however, soon sparked a reversal in risk appetites, as soaring costs of debt undermined consumer resilience and led many companies to lower profit expectations for 2024.
"The hunt for yield is over as classical bonds like sovereign, supranational and agency (SSA) or investment-grade offer enough yield now," Pesques said, adding that high-quality bonds offer very attractive returns.
Amundi has select exposure to EMs and Latin America through foreign exchange and local bonds, he said.
EM debt won big this year as global investors cheered less-aggressive central banks in those countries, and easing inflationary pressures brightened the attraction of real yields.
"In India, I'm long on the currency," Pesques said. "On China, we cut our long duration and are short the currency."
The U.S Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meet this week, with both expected to raise rates again after their most aggressive monetary tightening cycle in decades.
"We think there is a very narrow window for a soft landing. It is difficult to achieve," Shaan Raithatha, senior economist and strategist at Vanguard Europe, told GMF.
"We are starting to see cracks in the global economy from higher rates … so far the economy has bent but not broken," Raithatha added.
(Join GMF, a chat room hosted on Refinitiv Messenger:
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TikTok is planning to launch in early August an e-commerce platform to sell China-made goods in the United States, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the plan.
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