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The big bet by bulled-up investors: the year ends on a very impressive note profit-wise for corporate America.
How?
Far lower commodity costs after almost three-plus years of hyperinflation.
Thank the Fed's interest rate hikes. Thank consumers not buying "stuff" and instead opting for services like Marriott vacations. Whatever the case, the line items for costs of goods sold are finally showing major relief, and the market is sniffing out what that could be in future quarters.
Take for instance oil prices, which have plunged 20% in the past year. With that comes a cascade of lower costs throughout the supply chain. Lumber prices are down 25% in the last year — great news for everyone from homebuilders such as Toll Brothers (TOL) to companies building new plants.
The cost of electricity has dropped considerably, freeing up money for consumers to spend and businesses to invest in new value-creating goods and services.
To be sure, investors are already getting a taste of how this dramatically altered cost environment could impact profits this earnings season.
P&G's CEO Jon Moeller told me late last week that, over the next 12 months, the Tide maker will save $400 million on commodity costs.
It has been three years since Moeller and I have discussed commodities prices going lower — and I talk to the guy every quarter. The change in tone around costs certainly caught my attention, hence this Monday column.
"So it's not all a bed of roses, but it's a lot better looking than it was last year at this time, and our guidance reflects that," Moeller told me on the inflation topic.
The high end of P&G's new fiscal year profit outlook was $0.06 ahead of consensus estimates.
Top execs from PepsiCo to Campbell Soup to Nucor have given me the same vibe on the cost backdrop too.
And when all is said and done, I think these deflationary forces will be the story of this particular earnings season.
Analysts forgot commodities deflation and investors are playing catch up, clearly.
FactSet data shows that 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise so far.
Impressive — and I would argue it has been a key factor in the market's strong advance in recent weeks.
Some on the Street are finally getting it as seen in forward profit estimates.
For the fourth quarter, analysts are projecting 7.5% year-over-year earnings growth — an acceleration from a 0.2% increase in the third quarter.
Investors love profit acceleration stories.
When that story happens later this year, a better commodities backdrop will be to thank.
Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn. Tips on deals, mergers, activist situations, or anything else? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.
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HONG KONG/SYDNEY (Reuters) -Debt-laden Chinese developer Country Garden aborted a $300 million share placement at the last minute on Tuesday saying it had not reached a 'final agreement' for the deal to go ahead. A message from JPMorgan, the sole bookrunner for the sale, was sent early Tuesday saying Country Garden had decided against going ahead due to "various internal considerations" even though enough buyers had committed enough interest to cover the book, a person with direct knowledge said. Shares of Country Garden shed 7% in the afternoon session Tuesday, having rebounded 25% from July 24 after a meeting of China's Politburo had raised hopes of support for the troubled property sector.
Shares of Tupperware jumped 26% in Tuesday trading, continuing a meteoric rally that has more than quadrupled the value of the stock since the start of July. Tupperware's stock, worth less than $1 in early July, finished Tuesday at $5.38, its highest close since November. Tupperware said in July that it expects to have insufficient liquidity to make its interest payments under its credit agreement.
Marriott (MAR) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of 3.20% and 0.46%, respectively, for the quarter ended June 2023. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
Marriott CFO Leeny Oberg says her hotel giant sees good things ahead for the economy, despite fears of a hard economic landing on Wall Street.
(Bloomberg) — Mounting Treasury-bill supply is creating a “narrow and difficult” path for the Federal Reserve to keep unwinding its massive balance sheet and avoid roiling funding markets, according to Barclays Plc.Most Read from BloombergUS Stripped of AAA Rating by Fitch as Budget Deficits SwellPoland Sends Troops to Belarus Border After Airspace BreachMissing Goldman Sachs Analyst Confirmed Dead by New York PoliceUS, Europe Growing Alarmed by China’s Rush Into Legacy ChipsTrump Indicted on F
Not helping the market over the next few weeks is seasonal data, which shows that August and September are typically weak for stock market returns.
Lawmakers are playing chicken with the debt ceiling. Luckily there are still two U.S. S&P 500 companies left with AAA credit ratings.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon criticized Fitch's decision to downgrade the U.S. government's credit rating, calling it “ridiculous.” “I would point out to the rating agencies if I could that there are a bunch of countries rated higher than us, like AAA, but they live under the American enterprise military system.
EVgo reported a per-share loss of 8 cents from $50.6 million in sales. Wall Street was looking for a 26-cent loss from sales of $29.5 million.
Shares in PayPal Holdings Inc. fell more than 7% in after-hours trading Wednesday as concerns about growing losses on bad loans seemed to outweigh in-line second-quarter results and a slightly better-than-expected third-quarter forecast. In the second quarter, the payment service provider's adjusted operating margin, which excludes certain costs and gains, fell to 21.4% from 22.7% in the first quarter. The drop marked the first time San Jose-based PayPal had posted an adjusted operating margin of less than 22% in a year.
(Bloomberg) — Tupperware Brands Corp. has been warning for months that it may go bust, but that isn’t keeping retail investors away from powering an eye-popping rally reminiscent of the pandemic-era meme stock craze.Most Read from BloombergUS Stripped of AAA Rating by Fitch as Budget Deficits SwellPoland Sends Troops to Belarus Border After Airspace BreachMissing Goldman Sachs Analyst Confirmed Dead by New York PoliceTrump Indicted on Federal Charges in 2020 Election ProbeUS, Europe Growing Ala
The ratings agency cut the US's credit score late Tuesday, citing rising debts and an "erosion of governance."
Occidental (OXY) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of -2.86% and 0.95%, respectively, for the quarter ended June 2023. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
Fitch noted several variables led to the decision to downgrade the US
Sunrun (RUN) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of 173.53% and 5.09%, respectively, for the quarter ended June 2023. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
The Fitch agency’s downgrade of the U.S. government’s credit rating is being met with pushback from officials and well known economists, while others said it highlighted the need for the government to reduce spending deficits.
Investors are drawing false comfort from the past and from the perception that fiscal scolds in the U.S. have cried wolf so often.
Qualcomm  stock fell Wednesday after the maker of mobile-phone chips reported disappointing sales and said it expects a new round of layoffs. Qualcomm, which makes chips that go into Apple iPhones and millions of Android handsets, has been seeking growth in new areas amid a decline in its core mobile-phone chip business. Smartphone sales surged during the pandemic, but have stagnated in recent quarters, including a 7.8% year-on-year fall in the second quarter, according to International Data Corp.
Stocks slid Wednesday after the Fitch agency downgraded US credit.
It's well-established on Wall Street that companies that beat the analysts' estimates often outperform other stocks over the next few weeks. And when the "beat" is on both earnings and revenue, it's even more likely to propel a stock higher. But sometimes Wall Street will "buy on the rumor, sell on the news," and a stock may drop for a day or two after the earnings report. Analysts' opinions often carry more weight than the earnings performance of a company. Take a look at three real estate inve

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