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Here are some things I think will happen in the domain business this year.A person with his hands on a crystal ball
Earlier this month I published the annual predictions episode of the Domain Name Wire Podcast.
Now that you’ve heard from other people, here’s my forecast for the year.
Less interest in web3 domains – I expect this to be a long winter for web3 domain names. If people were registering these domains because they wanted an uncensorable, decentralized web presence, then nothing has changed. But let’s face it, nearly all of the registrations are from people trying to make a quick buck. And when there’s no quick buck to be made, they won’t show up.
Decline in .xyz sales values – Piggybacking on the first prediction, .xyz rode the wave of web3 startups, and it will also ride it down. While there will still be some nice .xyz sales this year, I expect the volume to decline considerably. Unless there’s a turnaround in web3 again.
Economic headwinds – Let’s face it, the past half year or so has been rough in the economy. Rising interest rates have led to a freeze in the real estate market, fewer business transactions, and layoffs. The economy isn’t bad; it’s just that the Fed is purposely trying to cool it off at the margins to lower inflation. Over the past 12 months I’m hearing less of “the economy is fine for me, but I’m worried about everyone else” to “the economy is starting to impact my business”. This will impact the domain name business, t00.
A new entrant in landing page space/sales platforms – I started writing this post before GoDaddy announced its commission change earlier this year. I assumed it would increase commissions on Dan.com landers, and this would usher in opportunity for a new competitor. Now that the company has released its plan, I’m not so sure. By giving a 40% commission discount on AfternicDLS sales when people use their landers, it might be more difficult for competitors to make inroads.
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Michael says

January sales certainly have been slow for me. I think the first six months of 2023 could be tough.
Squarely says

I still hand reg domains and still selling them —easy peasy hobby business.
I avoid toxic negativism .
“A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist
sees the opportunity in every difficulty.โ€
joesaba2014 says

Starting the year with a sale of $5K and I lost another one for not responding to an offer on time, although it can be solved, I also expect responses from various end users, everything and so, it will be a difficult winter, I am going to take advantage of sending it to several Domain Brokers better than I have domains in my portfolio, the economy and inflation is taking its toll on many businesses.
Steve says

2022 january – my best january ever for domain sales in 22 years
2023 january – so far, my worst january ever for domain sales in 23 years
Mark Thorpe says

@Steve Yikes, not good
NetOperator Wibby says

I hope people realize that without DNS their Web3 names are useless. Let StoppableDomains become a casualty of such.
MarkMajor says

January sales have been good for me. Sold a domain yesterday via GoDaddy/Afternic.
Received payment today, which was very surprising considering it was GoDaddy/Afternic.
I also believe .XYZ sales will be down … way down. Maybe with the exception of Swetha ๐Ÿ™‚
A new entrant in the landing page space/sales platforms wouldn’t have a chance against
GoDaddy/Afternic/Uniregistry/Dan. GoDaddy has this space locked down!!!
Mark Thorpe says

So far so good in 2023. Selling and buying domains.
Mark Thorpe says

I think my .Com domain portfolio is diversified well enough to weather a bad economy.
Plus, I target end-users in the small-to-medium business sector which never completely shuts down.
Steve says

Glad you’re doing well
And I’m seeing decent sales on Namebio
So I’m prob just having a bad month for sales
I’ve acquired some nice domains, so will hope for brighter days
But I’m happy when my fellow domain investors make great sales
jennifer says

I agree with all. Times are about to change in paricular with registries. If they think the public
is going to bit on $30 .co 15$ .net and renewals for .com in some cases approaching $15-20
the industry has a huge shock coming! with the poor selection of good names that are left
they should all be lowering prices, but because of greed they are going the other way. I
personally think the industry is going to expierence a huge shock in 2023. Only the wisest domain investors, and smartest registries are going to be able to absorb whats coming. sorry to be doom and gloom,but its my current mindset. I guess we’ll see ๐Ÿ˜‰
Rob says

I agree. I think the recent price hikes for renewals will see a large dumping of domains. $10 or higher to hold a dot com is a tad too much now. I’ve already dropped a few, always scanning for more. I don’t hold any .net or .co and wouldn’t want to now either.
In a way I hope it DOES happen because they need to hurt themselves with their monopolistic price rises. Maybe we’ll one day see a “shooting star” price drop!!!
Alessio says

Definitely agreed with XYZ names saw heaps of these last year but think it will probably slow down.
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