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Petrobras headquarters.

Junior Pereira

Junior Pereira
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (NYSE:PBR) aka Petrobras is a large Brazilian petroleum company with an integrated portfolio of assets. Its valuation doesn’t line up with that, though, as the company trades with a market capitalization of roughly $75 billion. Its
As we’ll see throughout this article, Petrobras has the ability to drive substantial future shareholder returns.
Petrobras had strong results in the quarter, helping to highlight its financial strength.

Petrobras Investor Presentation

Petrobras Investor Presentation

Petrobras Investor Presentation
The company had record pre-salt production of just over 2.1 million barrels / day. At the same time, Petrobras has started up gas injection asset while improving the yield of valuable oil products. The company had $14 billion in EBITDA, its fourth largest quarter despite lower
No other company throws off this kind of FCF yield, with a 40% FCF yield off of its market cap despite having a manageable debt yield. The company increased its cash position and paid $4.2 billion in dividends for the quarter, an annualized yield of more than 20%.
The company has seen strength across its business segment despite price weakness.

Petrobras Investor Presentation

Petrobras Investor Presentation

Petrobras Investor Presentation
The company’s EBITDA dropped by a more 1% QoQ, to $10.9 billion, despite lower Brent prices. The company’s refinement, transport, and commercialization business grew YoY at replacement cost, with inventory turnover primarily being what hurts the company. At the same time, the company’s gas and power business is smaller but grew well.
This represents a long-term, strong margin business for the company, but it takes a while to grow.
Petrobras has substantially improved its balance sheet, which enables it to use its cash for shareholder returns.

Petrobras Investor Presentation

Petrobras Investor Presentation

Petrobras Investor Presentation
The company has substantially reduced its net debt. In 2019, the company had a massive $79 billion in net debt. With the Brent price collapse in early-Covid, the company was punished by shareholders for that net debt, and focused on aggressively reducing its net debt. As a result, its net debt is down to $37.6 billion.
It’s worth noting that the company’s gross debt has remained fairly flat, but the company’s net debt has dropped from the company building its cash position. As interest rates rise, we expect the company to issue less debt but pay down its debt as it comes due. The company has a 12 year average debt maturity at a 6.5% financing rate.
Petrobras can comfortably afford to paydown debt as it comes due without needing to do anything else. Its revolving credit lines provide it with financial protection if needed.
Petrobras continues to develop its impressive portfolio of assets.

Petrobras Investor Presentation

Petrobras Investor Presentation

Petrobras Investor Presentation
The company managed to grow its operated production by 1.1% QoQ with similar growth in its owned production. That production is now 2.68 million barrels / day, primarily oil (2.15 million barrels / day). The company’s pre-salt production has increased even faster, up 3.7% QoQ to a massive 2.05 million barrels / day.
Pre-salt production has lower costs, which will enable increased returns for the company.
Putting this all together, Petrobras has a strong path to providing shareholder returns.

Petrobras Investor Presentation

Petrobras Investor Presentation

Petrobras Investor Presentation
The company earned $7.9 billion in FCF after $10.3 billion in operating cash flow. That means $2.4 billion in investments, or annualized capital spending of almost $10 billion. The company’s average annualized capital spending is roughly $13 billion in its 5-year capital spending through 2026, or 17% of the company’s market cap each year.
That’s massive investment. Outside of that, the company has strong FCF. The company’s dividend policy with special dividends mean it’s consistently provided strong dividends. We’d like to see the company, with where its valuation is, use an aggressive share repurchase program to the tune of $5-10 billion annualized (~10% of its valuation).
The company has a sizable almost $16 billion cash position that it can use for shareholder returns. Regardless of how the company uses its cash, whatever it uses it for can generate strong shareholder returns.
The company’s largest risk is crude oil prices. Prices have dropped almost 50% from their 2022 highs, and Saudi Arabia / Russian relations are rumored to be strained by Russia keeping volumes high as Saudi Arabia looks to control prices. Russia has less of an incentive to preserve prices as a result of sanctions and price cap.
We expect prices can be controlled, but if they can’t be, that’ll hurt Petrobras’ ability to drive future shareholder returns.
Petrobras has an impressive portfolio of assets. The company is generating strong cash flow with a low break-even. Pre-salt production is growing and that’s helping to lower the company’s costs. The company has done a great job of handling an inflationary environment and we expect its costs to continue reducing.
Petrobras has a strong cash position and its net debt has continued to reduce. Its FCF remains incredibly strong, and that’s on top of continued strong investments by the company. Putting all of this together, Petrobras is a valuable long-term investment and we highly recommend investing at this time.
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